Author(s): Lucas Fernández and María González Ruiz

Abstract: Urban hydrological systems are increasingly influenced by rapid land-use changes, surface imperviousness, and altered drainage characteristics, making accurate rainfall-runoff estimation essential for flood control and stormwater management. This research examines the rainfall-runoff relationship for a small urban catchment using simple linear regression models, emphasizing interpretability and applicability in data-scarce environments. Rainfall and runoff observations collected from a representative urban watershed were analyzed to quantify runoff response to varying rainfall intensities. Descriptive statistics were first employed to characterize rainfall variability and runoff behavior. Linear regression analysis was then applied to model the relationship between rainfall depth and runoff volume, while goodness-of-fit indicators such as coefficient of determination and significance testing were used to assess model performance. Analysis of variance was conducted to evaluate the statistical significance of the regression relationship, and residual diagnostics were examined to assess model assumptions. The results demonstrate a strong positive correlation between rainfall and runoff, with regression models capturing a substantial proportion of runoff variability despite their simplicity. The findings indicate that even basic regression approaches can provide meaningful insights into urban hydrological response when carefully calibrated. The research highlights the influence of rainfall magnitude on runoff generation and underscores the role of impervious surfaces in amplifying runoff response. Although more complex hydrological models may offer higher precision, the simplicity and transparency of regression-based approaches make them valuable for preliminary assessments, planning applications, and regions with limited monitoring infrastructure. Overall, this research reinforces the practical relevance of simple statistical models in understanding urban rainfall-runoff processes and supports their use as effective tools for stormwater analysis, early-stage flood assessment, and urban water management decision-making.

DOI: 10.22271/27078388.2026.v7.i1a.62

Pages: 21-24 | Views: 25 | Downloads: 12

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