Author(s): Camila Rivera, Felipe Vargas and Valentina Morales

Abstract: Urban heat islands (UHIs) are a pressing challenge in urban environments, characterized by elevated temperatures compared to surrounding rural areas. This study, conducted in diverse urban typologies across Santiago, Chile, investigates the mitigation potential of passive design strategies using a weighted least squares (WLS) methodology to address urban heat intensity. The research utilized high-resolution remote sensing data, including land surface temperature (LST) from MODIS and Landsat-8, vegetation indices (NDVI), albedo, and urban morphology metrics. Statistical modeling incorporated WLS regression to evaluate the impact of green cover, reflective materials, and urban morphology on LST reduction. The results revealed that green cover, quantified through NDVI, was the most effective strategy, reducing LST by 4.2 °C per unit increase (p < 0.01). Reflective materials contributed a 2.8 °C reduction per 0.1 unit increase in albedo (p < 0.05), while optimized urban morphology metrics reduced temperatures by 1.9 °C (p < 0.05). Conversely, impervious surfaces increased LST by 1.5 °C per 10% increase in coverage (p < 0.05). Spatial analysis identified cooling zones clustered around areas with higher NDVI and albedo values, with an average temperature reduction of 4.3 °C compared to urban averages. Sensitivity analysis confirmed the robustness of the model, with an R² of 0.82 and RMSE of 0.89 °C. This study underscores the importance of integrating passive design strategies into urban planning for UHI mitigation, offering a holistic approach that aligns with global sustainability initiatives such as the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). By leveraging advanced statistical tools like WLS regression, the research highlights the synergistic potential of combining green infrastructure, high-albedo materials, and optimized urban design. The findings provide actionable insights for policymakers and urban planners, contributing to the development of resilient and sustainable cities.

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